Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 13.406826 15.616625 18.023628 20.833221 24.015449 27.500462 31.598293
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.550811 12.466754 15.955992 20.406904 25.898267 32.413881 40.688435
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 7.374156 10.628648 14.849880 20.649565 28.322341 38.027189 51.116235
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.724823 9.027496 13.631388 20.381636 29.862897 42.517886 60.457166
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.905405 8.357521 13.473734 21.393245 33.076442 49.362345 73.382311
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.134190 7.578225 12.983334 21.778106 35.342657 54.999512 85.025283
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 3.465763 6.815100 12.365261 21.827379 37.032239 59.859270 95.846912
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.935557 6.172730 11.819641 21.874195 38.651935 64.663371 106.855461
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.746040 6.103241 12.210941 23.474822 42.845963 73.652834 124.753990
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.497903 5.871095 12.271430 24.492508 46.139990 81.429638 141.244193
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.271904 5.637814 12.287982 25.413259 49.319082 89.202910 158.174530
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.963452 5.168871 11.784264 25.309856 50.680521 94.047821 170.627168
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.609216 4.534763 10.880457 24.380965 50.549559 96.497340 179.517271
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.328279 4.008290 10.116101 23.627920 50.666920 99.385602 189.365292
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.161839 3.726309 9.830925 23.802513 52.540430 105.476661 205.085673
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.985984 3.375628 9.332812 23.461462 53.363635 109.712915 217.789195
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.921493 3.318135 9.507644 24.589037 57.199494 119.705831 241.304058
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.826298 3.147123 9.378834 25.017471 59.628124 127.194581 260.652025
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.725231 2.931461 9.102520 25.070830 61.268250 133.270844 277.714197
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.637544 2.734450 8.841019 25.122782 62.898291 139.410813 295.201919
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.627051 2.797019 9.285664 26.926493 68.474501 153.612294 328.625936
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.591613 2.762831 9.457595 28.072364 72.675954 165.297036 357.770991
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.554817 2.714281 9.581449 29.108518 76.704611 176.844782 387.178706